Power trading opportunities in Georgia and Caucasus region

We expect electricity consumption in Georgia to reach 20.0 TWh by 2035, up from 14.9 TWh in 2025, representing a 3.4% CAGR over 2026-35. Demand growth will be driven by GDP growth and a higher level of electrification, including wider use of air conditioners and household appliances, as well as an increase in the number of electric vehicles.

Over 2007-26, 94% of renewable power plants were built with state support mechanisms. The suspension of PPAs in 2017 slowed investor interest, while the launch of the CFD mechanism at the end of 2022 revived it. In our baseline scenario, we expect power plant construction to accelerate, with Georgia’s installed capacity reaching 8.8 GW by 2035. This would require $4.5bn in generation investments and $1.0bn in grid development. Under this scenario, Georgia becomes a net electricity exporter, while project delays would keep import dependence high.

Regional trading opportunities will depend on cross-border line capacity, the regional generation mix, electricity prices and market rules. Turkey has historically been Georgia’s main export market, but planned infrastructure projects could expand trading opportunities. The Black Sea Submarine Cable could create a new export route to Europe and strengthen Georgia’s role in regional electricity trade.