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Capital Markets 2Q26 Update

published

4/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM

found

5/18/2026, 7:30:10 AM

last seen

6/15/2026, 8:21:40 AM

Energy costs linked to the Iran conflict and tariff pass-through are pushing inflation higher simultaneously, leaving the Fed unable to cut rates at its April meeting - Jerome Powell's last meeting as chair. With March CPI at 3.3% and rate hikes explicitly live, short-term, high-quality bonds remain the safest choice.
US stocks have fully recovered from Iran war-related losses, with the S&P 500 just off its record high, Q1 earnings growth is running at 15.1%. Among Big Tech, Alphabet was the standout, surging 6% after hours; Microsoft and Amazon beat estimates but slipped on valuation and capex concerns; Meta fell 5% on flat Q2 guidance. Apple reports after the close today.
The Iran conflict caused the largest oil supply disruption in modern history, with Brent above $113/bbl after US–Iran talks in Pakistan collapsed over the weekend. Trump has signaled dissatisfaction with Iran's latest proposal, keeping the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices on a knife-edge.
Asia is hit hardest because 84% of Gulf oil and 83% of LNG flows there. China is the exception: Q1 GDP beat at 5.0%, the CSI 300 has outperformed regional peers. South Korea and Taiwan remain most exposed to tech supply chain disruption.