Monthly Economic Review - Growth Surged

Top 3 highlights from Georgia’s monthly economic review:

1.      Growth surged, forecast raised

Georgia's economy expanded 10.7% y/y in Mar-26, bringing 1Q26 growth to 9.1%. The Middle East conflict's impact remained concentrated in hospitality while other sectors accelerated. We raise our 2026 GDP forecast to 7.0% (from 6.0%). 

2.     Inflation revised upward

We revise our 2026 inflation forecast to 4.8% (from 4.2%), as global oil prices are taking longer to normalize. Mar-26 inflation eased to 4.3%, largely due to base effects, but with imported goods prices turning positive, oil-driven pass-through lies ahead. 

3.     GEL holds firm

The GEL weathered March stress with minimal NBG intervention of just US$ 16.2mn. Having strengthened to 2.69/1$ (appreciating by 0.3% m/m), we expect GEL to remain broadly stable throughout 2026.