Weekly Market Watch

Tourism revenues at US$ 829.8mn in 1Q26
In 1Q26, tourism revenues increased by 0.5% y/y to US$ 829.8mn, as strong performance in January-February offset a sharp decline in March. According to our estimates, tourism revenues fell by 32.0% y/y to US$ 197mn in Mar-26, reflecting the negative impact of the Iran escalation. Growth in 1Q26 was mainly driven by the EU (+36.4% y/y), Türkiye (+12.2% y/y), Ukraine (+34.2% y/y) and Saudi Arabia (+47.6% y/y), while other markets contributed negatively.
We forecast tourism revenues at US$ 4.9bn for the full year 2026, revised downwards from previous estimate of US$ 5.0bn, assuming the escalation ends in early May (see details in the tourism market watch here).

Goods trade deficit narrowed by 6.5% y/y in Mar-26
In Mar-26, goods exports increased strongly by 24.0% y/y to US$ 697.0mn, following a 26.6% y/y rise in previous month. Goods imports rose by 4.7% y/y to US$ 1.6bn, after growing by 10.4% y/y in Feb-26. As a result, the trade deficit narrowed by 6.5% y/y to US$ 895.3mn.
The top 5 exported commodities were cars (-31.2% y/y), petroleum (+US$ 104.9mn y/y), precious metals (+233.3% y/y), ferro-alloys (+94.2% y/y) and copper (+236.9% y/y) in Mar-26. A 13.1% of exports were directed to the EU (+12.5% y/y), 48.5% to the CIS (-13.2% y/y) and 38.4% to other countries (+192.7% y/y). The top 5 imports were cars (-26.3% y/y), petroleum (+30.4% y/y), crude petroleum (+US$ 69.2mn y/y), pharmaceuticals (+1.2% y/y) and gases (+42.0% y/y) in Mar-26.
Overall, in 1Q26, the trade deficit decreased by 20.9% y/y to US$ 2.4bn, as exports grew by 23.4% y/y to US$ 1.7bn and imports were down by 7.1% y/y to US$ 4.1bn. 

Producer price index increased by 6.5% y/y in Mar-26
Annual PPI for industrial goods increased by 6.5% in Mar-26, after a 5.7% rise in previous month. The annual growth was mainly driven by an increase in prices in the manufacturing sector (+5.0% y/y), followed by mining (+33.0% y/y).