Electricity Market Watch – March 2026

March 2026: Turkey once again appeared among the top import suppliers

In March 2026, local electricity consumption increased by 4.3% y/y to 1.3 TWh. At the same time, hydropower generation fell by 8.6%, largely due to hydrological conditions. As a result, the combined share of thermal generation and imports increased from 34% in Mar-25 to 42% in Mar-26, pointing to the system’s higher import dependence and the need for new generation sources. Turkey once again appeared among the top import suppliers, which, in our view, points to points to stronger competition across supplier countries.

1Q26: The high share of imports and thermal generation highlights the need for faster growth in new generation capacity

In 1Q26, electricity consumption increased by 8.0% y/y to 4.1 TWh, which, in our view, was mainly driven by the cold winter and stronger activity in the data processing and ferroalloy sectors in Jan-Feb. Hydropower generation also increased in 1Q26, mainly due to a 70.4% rise in output from Enguri-Vardnili, although this was largely the result of a low base effect.

Despite the addition of new capacity, the share of wind and new solar power plants in total supply remained small at just 0.7%.  Over half of electricity demand in 1Q26 was met by thermal generation and imports combined. At 51.2%, their share was broadly unchanged from 51.3% in 1Q25, despite y/y deterioration in January and March.