Weekly Market Watch

IMF updates world economic outlook

On 14 April 2026, the IMF released an updated World Economic Outlook. In its baseline scenario, global growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026, down 0.2ppts from the January forecast and below the estimated 3.4% pace in 2024-25, mainly reflecting the impact of the Middle East war via higher commodity prices, elevated inflation expectations, and tighter financial conditions. Global inflation is expected to pause its decline, rising from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026 before easing to 3.7% in 2027, largely driven by energy and food price pressures. For Georgia, the IMF maintains its growth forecast at 5.3% for 2026.

Tourist arrivals increased by 4.0% y/y in 1Q26

In 1Q26, international visitors to Georgia - comprising tourist arrivals and same-day arrivals - decreased marginally by 0.2% y/y to 1.2mn, reflecting the impact of Middle East escalation on travel flows in Mar-26. The decline was driven by a sharp drop in same-day arrivals (-19.0% y/y), while tourist arrivals increased by 4.0% y/y (85.2% of total).

Visitor flows weakened notably from Israel (-17.5% y/y), Iran (-48.8% y/y), Armenia (-11.2% y/y), India (-29.5% y/y), and Azerbaijan (-8.1% y/y). At the same time, arrivals increased from the EU (+30.2% y/y), Türkiye (+5.8% y/y), Russia (+5.2% y/y), China (+48.6% y/y), Ukraine (+24.5% y/y), and Saudi Arabia (+36.6% y/y). Notably, strong growth from Saudi Arabia drove an overall 8.2% y/y increase in visitors from Gulf countries in 1Q26.

According to Galt & Taggart’s estimates, tourism revenues in Mar-26 decreased by around 32% y/y. However, strong activity in Jan-Feb led total tourism revenues to increase by 1.4% y/y to US$ 837mn in 1Q26. We forecast tourism revenues at US$ 4.9bn for 2026.

Goods exports increased strongly in Mar-26

In Mar-26, goods exports increased strongly by 24.0% y/y to US$ 697.0mn, following a 26.6% y/y rise in previous month. Goods imports rose by 4.4% y/y to US$ 1.6bn, after growing by 10.4% y/y in Feb-26. As a result, the trade deficit narrowed by 7.0% y/y to US$ 890.4mn.

Overall, in 1Q26, the trade deficit decreased by 21.1% y/y to US$ 2.4bn, as exports grew by 23.3% y/y to US$ 1.7bn and imports were down by 7.2% y/y to US$ 4.1bn.

Money transfers increased by 9.8% y/y in Mar-26

Money transfers increased by 9.8% y/y to US$ 320.6mn in Mar-26, after a 17.1% y/y growth in previous month. Among the top countries, the transfers increased from the EU (+11.0% y/y, 46.9% of total), the USA (+10.9% y/y, 19.0% of total), Israel (+25.2% y/y, 8.4% of total) and Türkiye (+33.9% y/y, 3.6% of total). Meanwhile, transfers reduced only from Kazakhstan (-2.3% y/y, 2.0% of total).

Overall, in 1Q26 money transfers rose by 14.2% y/y to US$ 898.6mn.

We forecast money transfers at US$ 3.8bn in 2026, up from US$ 3.6bn posted in 2025.