Electricity Market Watch - January 2026

Georgia’s electricity sector entered 2026 with a sharp demand growth that required record-high imports, once again revealing structural imbalances in the seasonal supply-demand profile.

Electricity consumption increased by 17.8% y/y to 1.4 TWh in January 2026, driven by colder-than-usual weather, heavy snowfall, and higher energy-intensive industrial activity, particularly in ferro-alloy production and data mining.

In contrast, domestic generation declined by 1.5% y/y to 0.9 TWh. Hydro output fell 3.3% y/y overall, although Enguri-Vardnili generation surged by 85.0% y/y due to a low base effect. Thermal generation increased modestly (+1.3% y/y), only partially offsetting weaker hydro output. Newly commissioned solar plants contributed just 0.1% of total generation.

The resulting supply gap led to a sharp increase in electricity imports, underscoring persistent winter supply vulnerabilities.

In our view, this episode again highlights the structural need for generation assets with strong winter profiles, notably reservoir-based hydropower plants and wind power plants.