Tourism Market Watch - 4Q25

Visitors
International visitors reached 1.5mn in 4Q25, up 8.3% y/y. This growth was driven primarily by tourists, which rose 10.5% y/y to 1.2mn, while same-day visitors increased only marginally by 0.5% y/y to 0.3mn. Growth in 4Q25 was supported by strong inflows from Israel (+33.8% y/y), neighboring markets led by Russia (+7.4% y/y), the EU (+17.0% y/y), and China (+42.8% y/y). Meanwhile, visitor growth from India slowed in 2H25, easing to 4.5% y/y in 4Q25 from 31.4% y/y in 1H25. This likely signals a transition toward a smaller but higher-spending visitor segment.
Meanwhile, visitors from Kazakhstan (-5.8% y/y) and Iran (-4.3% y/y) continued to decline in 4Q25, reinforcing the ongoing negative trend observed throughout 2025.
Overall, in 2025, international visitors grew by 6.2% y/y to 6.9mn, with tourists up by 8.4% y/y to 5.5mn and same-day visitors down by 2.2% y/y to 1.3mn.

Revenues
Tourism revenues amounted to US$1.1bn in 4Q25, marking a 9.2% y/y increase. Growth was led by Israel (+37.0% y/y), followed by the EU (+26.6% y/y), neighboring markets excluding Russia (+17.8% y/y), and Asian markets. Notably, despite solid visitor inflows from Russia, revenues fell 23.7% y/y in 4Q25. Receipts from Iran were broadly flat (-1.2% y/y), despite a decline in visitor numbers.
Overall, in 2025 tourism revenues were up by 6.0% y/y to US$4.7bn.

Accommodation
Hotel KPIs in Batumi maintained the momentum from earlier quarters, with average occupancy increasing to 50% in 4Q25 (vs 46% in 4Q24) and ADR remaining stable at US$75. In Tbilisi, hotel performance improved, with average occupancy increasing to 58% (from 48% in 4Q24), supported by stronger arrivals from the EU. ADR also rose to US$87 in 4Q25 from US$84 in 4Q24.
Airbnb trends will be included in upcoming editions following methodological updates from the source.

Expectations for 2026
For 2026, we forecast tourist arrivals at 6.1mn. Tourism revenues are projected at US$5.0 bn, revised upwards from our previous estimate of US$4.9 bn.