Weekly Global Markets Watch

The past week was defined by a sharp selloff in long-dated government bonds, as investors repriced the risks of stickier inflation, delayed policy easing and mounting fiscal pressure across major economies. Equities held up relatively well, but the broader message from markets was more cautious: the Iran conflict and unresolved Strait of Hormuz issue are beginning to look less like a temporary geopolitical shock and more like a meaningful macro risk.

Rising inflation concerns returned to the center of the market narrative, as hotter-than-expected April US CPI and PPI data, combined with the ongoing energy shock, pushed investors to reassess the outlook for central-bank easing. With Kevin Warsh set to chair his first FOMC meeting in June, markets are increasingly focused on whether the Fed will remain cautious on rate cuts in a more inflation-sensitive environment.

Commodity markets reflected the renewed inflation scare most clearly, with Brent crude surging toward $109 per barrel as supply disruption fears intensified, while aluminum also gained on broader geopolitical and supply-chain concerns.