Electricity Market Watch – April 2026

April 2026: Hydro generation fell to a 5-year low, raising reliance on thermal generation and imports to 20.7%

In April 2026, local electricity consumption increased by 2.1% y/y to 1.1 TWh. At the same time, hydro generation declined by 19.3% y/y due to weaker hydrological conditions. As a result, the combined share of thermal generation and imports in total supply rose to 20.7%, compared to the April average of 6.0% over 2021-25. This once again highlights Georgia’s vulnerability stemming from its dependence on hydro generation and points to the need for accelerated development of new generation sources.

4M26: The high share of imports and thermal generation highlights the need to accelerate new generation development

In 4M26, electricity consumption increased by 6.6% y/y to 5.1 TWh. In our view, this growth was mainly driven by an unusually cold winter and the recovery in ferroalloy production. In 4M26, thermal generation and imports accounted for 44.3% of total supply, up from 39.2% in 4M25. This increase was mainly driven by weak hydrological conditions in April 2026 and Enguri HPP’s low reservoir level in Jan-Feb 2026. Turkey was among Georgia’s key import sources in 3 out of 4 months in 2026, pointing to increased competition in imports and a possible structural shift in import dynamics.