Macro, Commodity & Currency Markets Update

Global monetary policy has turned more cautious and visibly more hawkish as the Iran conflict complicates the inflation outlook. The Fed, BoE and ECB are increasingly focused on renewed energy-driven price pressures, while Japan remains on a gradual normalization path. Overall, rate cuts now look less likely across major economies.

Global macro data show a mixed but increasingly fragile picture. The US economy remains resilient, supported by solid consumption and services activity, while the UK has started the year on firmer footing but faces weaker consumer sentiment. In contrast, the Eurozone is more exposed to the energy shock and stagflation risks, China’s recovery remains uneven, and Japan continues to benefit from stronger domestic demand and wage momentum.

Commodity and currency markets remain heavily shaped by the Middle East conflict. Oil has shifted from a surplus story to a physical shortage story, gold remains structurally supported as a geopolitical hedge, wahile industrial metals face a balance between supply-chain disruption and weaker demand. In FX, the US dollar outlook has strengthened, weighing on EUR/USD and GBP/USD.