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Annual inflation eased to 5.7% in May-26
Annual inflation eased to 5.7% y/y in May-26 (in line with our expectation), from 5.9% y/y in Apr-26, mainly driven by a slowdown in food inflation. The slowdown was partially offset by a further rise in energy prices - gasoline (+26.3% y/y) and diesel (+48.0% y/y) together contributed c.1.3ppts to headline inflation. Core inflation, which excludes food, energy and tobacco from the basket, edged up to 3.5% y/y in May-26, from 3.2% y/y in the previous month.
By categories, annual inflation in May-26 was largely driven by price increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages (+5.2% y/y, +1.84ppts), transport (+15.1% y/y, +1.72ppts), utilities (+7.0% y/y, +0.66ppts), alcoholic beverages & tobacco (+7.2% y/y, +0.46ppts), healthcare (+5.1% y/y, +0.43ppts) and hotels & restaurants (+7.6% y/y, +0.24ppts) categories. Meanwhile, deflation was recorded in communication (-6.4% y/y, -0.20ppts) and furnishings, household equipment & maintenance (-1.3% y/y, -0.07ppts).
We forecast average annual inflation at 4.8% for 2026.
International reserves at record US$ 7.0bn in May-26
Gross international reserves increased by 52.7% y/y to a record US$ 7.0bn in May-26, according to the NBG. On a monthly basis, reserves grew by 8.2% (+US$ 531.2mn). The change was attributed to government and/or banking sector FX operations, as well as NBG FX purchases via the BMatch platform (details to be published on 25 June). Notably, monetary gold accounted for 14.9% of total reserves as of May-26.
Tourism revenues estimated at US$ 380mn in May-26
Tourism revenues rebounded in May-26, up 3.5% y/y to US$ 380mn, following two consecutive months of declines driven by reduced Middle Eastern visitors. Cumulatively, 5M26 tourism revenues stood at US$ 1.5bn (-2.1% y/y).
We forecast full-year 2026 tourism revenues at US$ 4.9bn.
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